672
FXAK68 PAFC 070104
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
504 PM AKDT Mon Apr 6 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Wednesday)...

The transient ridge over Southcentral today has kept most of the
region under sunny skies and dry conditions, with the exception of
a stratus deck lingering over terrain. Farther south and upstream
of the ridge, high level clouds are beginning to spill over the
ridge into the western Gulf and Kodiak Island ahead of an incoming
Bering Sea front. Generally increasingly unsettled weather will
follow this evening through mid- week as a low pressure system in
the Bering Sea moves towards Southcentral Alaska. While much of
the region will see at least brief periods of snow/rain, the
highest precipitation amounts will be along the Gulf coast,
including Prince William Sound. No significant hazards are
anticipated at this time.

An occluded frontal system currently stretching from the
Southwest Alaska coast down into the North Pacific will continue
to push east this afternoon, reaching Kodiak Island this evening
before continuing north across Cook Inlet and the Kenai Peninsula
overnight. While precipitation for Kodiak Island is expected to
mainly fall as a rain/snow mix and rain, the precipitation type
forecast across Southcentral is trickier and will be heavily
influenced by diurnal temperature variations with temperatures
climbing into the 30s and 40s. The general expectation is for
light snow accumulations in the morning, with a change to a
rain/snow mix or rain by the afternoon and evening. Light snow
accumulations up to an inch of snow are expected overnight tonight
across the Kenai Peninsula, with just a dusting of snow farther
north for Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley through mid-morning
Tuesday. Typical downslope areas like the Western Kenai Peninsula,
Anchorage, and Mat Valley are expected to remain mostly dry
through the rest of the day Tuesday as easterly flow increases.
Along the coast, nearly constant precipitation falling as rain or
rain/snow mix will continue through Wednesday.

The potential remains for another round of light snow and rain
for Wednesday, but the placement of the eastward moving upper
trough continues to remain uncertain at this time. If a more
favorable solution plays out that promotes another round of
precipitation for inland areas, would again expect most to fall as
a rain/snow mix or rain.

-JH

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3/Tonight through Thursday)...

A fairly complex pattern is in place across the Bering Sea,
Aleutians, and Southwest Alaska - with multiple short-wave troughs
transiting the region. The trough is anchored by a relatively
weak vertically stacked low tracking eastward across the southern
Bering Sea, producing areas of rain and Small Craft Advisory level
winds. Colder air moving in behind the low is leading to somewhat
stronger northwesterlies for Shemya and the far western Aleutian
Islands. Further east, a weak negatively tilted short-wave trough
extends from the central Bering to the southern Alaska Peninsula
(False Pass area), with a warm front out ahead of it spreading
north and east across the Bering and toward Southwest AK. Very
light snow is beginning to spread onshore along the Kuskokwim
Delta and Bristol Bay coasts. Gusty winds and cold temperatures
along the Kuskokwim coast are leading to blowing snow and reduced
visibilities. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the
Kuskokwim coast and Western Capes, with conditions deteriorating
this afternoon as winds strengthen and steadier snow arrives.
Lastly, a stronger short-wave is tracking south of the Alaska
Peninsula, bringing rain and gusty winds to Cold Bay, King Cove,
Sand Point and other nearby communities.

All of the aforementioned upper level features will progress
eastward toward Southwest AK over the next 36 hours, leading to
a long duration of mostly light precipitation, with widespread
reduced visibilities and ceilings. Precipitation will start out
as all snow this afternoon through tonight, but marginally warmer
air aloft will bring a mix of rain and snow for Tuesday through
Tuesday night. While precipitation intensity will generally stay
light, occasional stronger vorticity-maxima moving through could
lead to brief upticks in intensity, especially for Bristol Bay.
For the Alaska Peninsula westward to Dutch Harbor, precipitation
will remain mostly in the form of rain and will be more
intermittent in nature. The entire upper trough will exit eastward
to Southcentral Wednesday through Wednesday night, with
precipitation tapering off from west to east.

Meanwhile, a deep low tracking to near the Kamchatka Peninsula
Tuesday night, will cause amplification of the upper level flow,
with a high amplitude ridge building ahead of it and crossing the
Bering Sea on Wednesday. A strong frontal system extending from
the low will slowly march eastward across the Bering Sea and
Aleutians Wednesday through Thursday, weakening as it elongates
along the west side of the upper ridge. Precipitation may reach
the Kuskokwim Delta coast sometime Thursday, but it will likely be
quite light. In addition, strong southerly flow ahead of the
front will lead to warmer temperatures resulting in a mix of rain
and snow.

-SEB

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

High pressure building over mainland Alaska and the southern Gulf
of Alaska will allow for disorganized areas of low pressure and
associated precipitation in the SE Panhandle into near Cordova.
Out west, a front moving over the Aleutian Chain will bring
precipitation and elevated winds to the Bering Sea and Kuskokwim
Delta Friday. Models begin to diverge by the weekend with
increasing uncertainty regarding the timing and placement of
features, but a progressive upper level shortwave pattern will
keep elevated chances of stormy weather for the Bering Sea and
west coast. Forecast high temperatures over southern Alaska look
to remain around average to above average through the period. By
Monday, forecast confidence diminishes with little agreement over
Southern Alaska besides another front entering the Western Bering
and Aleutians.

&&



.AVIATION...

PANC...Ceilings in will increase in coverage and gradually
decrease through Tuesday morning as a system approaches from the
south. Light snow will work up the Cook Inlet through the morning
hours...working into the terminal between about 12-15Z.
Precipitation will start to erode with increasing ceilings as low
to mid- level flow becomes more easterly after 18Z.

&&


$$