<pre>733
FXAK67 PAJK 020540 AAA
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
840 PM AKST Sun Feb 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - A weakly forced, warmer than normal pattern will persist into
   Monday.

 - A gale force front will move into the eastern Gulf of Alaska
   and the southern half of the Alaska Panhandle Tuesday into
   Wednesday bringing stronger winds to portions of the coastal
   and offshore waters.

 - The potential for heavy rain is still being seen Tuesday into
   Wednesday for parts of the southern Alaska Panhandle.

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday)

Main concerns for the next 24-48 hours will be the potential for low
stratus and fog with light rains across the region.  Generally
warmer air over cold seasonal waters with periodic light wind
regimes for some areas overnight will result in more fog production
and potential impacts to aviation operations (more below in the
aviation section).  Rainfall over the next 48 hours will be
generally light (but widespread at times) with any snow potential
being in the upper elevations above 2500 ft AGL).  For the South
Klondike and Haines Highways any snow potential looks to be
minimally impactful with 1 to 2 inches possible through Monday.
05/Garmon

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Late Week)

With the main areas of low pressure well west through late week over
the north central and northwestern Gulf of Alaska,  a gale force
front extending east of the broad low will initially move up from
the south across the eastern Gulf of Alaska and the southern
Panhandle Tuesday, with another front moving in on Wednesday. This
will help focus periods of heavier rainfall across the southern half
of the Panhandle Tuesday into Wednesday with a general area of 2 to
4 inches of rainfall expected.  Anticedant conditions look minimal
for significant flooding with annual return values less than 5
years, so impacts from heavy rainfall do not look to be overly
significant for midweek.  We will see periods of winds 35-50 mph at
times across the southern Panhandle Tuesday into Wednesday, but at
this time not to High Wind Warning criteria.  We will continue to
monitor.  05/Garmon

.AVIATION.../06z Monday/ Models are struggling with tracking frontal
bands moving northward across the area. Ceilings across the north
are higher than previously thought due to easterly
offshore/downslope component of the wind and thus northern TAF sites
are seeing light precip or very little. Think this trend will
continue for places like PAYA, PAGY, and PAHN until a southerly wind
shift Monday afternoon behind a frontal band currently over the
south. Gusty winds and some LLWS are occuring along this frontal
band over the southern panhandle at 6z. Light to moderate rain is
also bringing conditions down to MVFR. Outside of this frontal band,
when there are breaks, conditions periodically lower with areas of
IFR fog. These variable conditions between frontal bands will
continue.

&&

.MARINE...

There will be a series of weather systems that will move over the
area through mid week(Wednesday). Currently there is generally
lighter winds but there is some winds from the east near Cross
Sound and then some enhanced northerly winds near small craft
levels around southern Lynn near Rocky Island. There will be some
increase in the winds from the south tonight as the a weakening
trough moves over the inner channels and increase the southerly
gradient. The strongest winds for tonight will be over the far
southern areas with small craft winds developing. Monday will be a
lull in the winds as the next system from the south approaches
and moves out of the north Pacific. The associated front will
begin to increase the winds to near gale over the southern areas
Monday night and spread northward through Tuesday. The strongest
winds on Tuesday will be out of the E/W oriented channels with
lighter winds in N/S but as the front moves through late Tuesday
afternoon into the evening hours southerly winds will increase
over the inner channels to be near small craft. Over the coastal
waters winds will increase to solid gale force winds with seas
building to range from 20 to 25ft by Tuesday afternoon.

Looking into mid week, there is another strong system that will
bring another round of solid gales and seas near 20 feet over the
outside waters. Over the northern inner channels there will be
another lull in the winds between systems as the Wednesday front
moves over the southern areas to increase winds to gale force
winds through Tuesday night and spread northward through
Wednesday.

The rest of the week will remain on the active side with other
fronts moves through the region.  ABJ

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ641-661.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ013-022-036-053-642>644-651-652-
     662>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JG
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...FERRIN
MARINE...ABJ

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