513
FXUS64 KMOB 061141
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
641 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 628 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

- A tropical disturbance in the Southwest Gulf has a High (80
  percent) chance of developing into a Tropical Depression during
  midweek as it moves northeastward. Regardless of the track,
  there is an increasing potential of heavy rainfall late this
  week.

- A High Risk of rip currents will occur Tuesday through the
  remainder of the week. A Surf Advisory may also become necessary
  as surf heights near 5 feet.

- Moderate to strong northeasterly to easterly winds will create
  hazardous for small craft throughout the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 628 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Forecast is on track with no significant updates necessary. 07/mb

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

After a multi-day rain event late last week and over the weekend,
our focus turns to another multi-day rain event late this week and
over the weekend as a tropical system potentially forms over the
Gulf. Not exactly the Octobers we are accustomed to. In addition,
we are also focused on impactful beach and marine hazards
throughout the week due to moderate to strong northeasterly to
easterly winds.

Latest surface analysis is showing a cold frontal boundary and a
weak low pressure area just off the coast, with a large high
pressure system to our north. A drier airmass north of this
front will continue to advect into the region from the northeast
through into Thursday. This will allow the forecast area a chance
to dry out prior to an increase in precipitation chances late in
the week. For today, we are expecting isolated to scattered
showers and storms along the coast in close proximity to the
surface front and low pressure area through mid-afternoon until
the drier air pushes offshore. Rain-free conditions will then
occur across the entire forecast area from late this afternoon
through Thursday night.

With the moderate to strong northeasterly to easterly winds over
the marine area courtesy of a tight surface pressure gradient,
there will be beach and marine hazards to contend with. A Coastal
Hazard Message has been issued for a High Risk of rip currents
returning Tuesday that will persist through the remainder of the
week. A Surf Advisory may also become necessary as surf heights
near 5 feet. In addition, higher winds and seas will create
hazardous for small craft throughout the week.

A tropical disturbance in the Southwest Gulf has a High (80
percent) chance of developing into a Tropical Depression during
midweek as it moves northeastward. Regardless of the track, there
is an increasing potential of heavy rainfall late this week. It is
too early to determine other potential impacts at this time.

High temperatures today will be in the lower to middle 80s west of
I-65 and the upper 70s to lower 80s to the east where clouds will
linger. High temperatures will then be in the lower to middle 80s
through Friday. Low temperatures will be in the lower to middle
60s tonight, cooling slightly Wednesday and Thursday nights.

Beach Forecast: A HIGH risk of rip currents will occur Tuesday
through the remainder of the week. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

MVFR ceilings prevail through much of the day. Isolated showers
will be possible this morning over the Florida panhandle.
Conditions improve late this afternoon to VFR. Northeasterly winds
around 10 knots may be gusty at times along the immediate
coastline. 07/mb

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 628 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

A cold front will continue to push across the water today with
strengthening easterly to northeasterly winds. Seas increase to
4-8 feet creating rough conditions offshore. Small Craft Advisory
remains in effect through late week. Conditions may worsen late
in the week and into the weekend due to the potential for tropical
cyclone development in the Gulf. 07/mb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      82  67  84  65 /  10   0   0   0
Pensacola   79  69  82  68 /  30  10   0  10
Destin      80  69  83  69 /  50  10  10   0
Evergreen   83  62  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  85  63  86  60 /   0   0   0   0
Camden      85  61  86  57 /   0   0   0   0
Crestview   78  64  82  62 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CDT Friday for GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

&&

$$