040
FXUS64 KBMX 270025
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
725 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 724 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026

- A Flood Watch is in effect for much of Central Alabama through
  this evening.

- Additional periods of scattered to numerous showers and
  thunderstorms are forecast through the week, with low to medium
  chances for isolated flash flooding or a strong thunderstorm.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1152 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026

A persistent rainy pattern is expected to continue through the
remainder of the week and into the weekend. A strong cut-off
upper low located in the vicinity of the Great Basin effectively
blocks the synoptic pattern for much of the week. This will lead
to status quo for our area with troughing just to our west and
ridging to our east pulling in ample deep layer moisture from the
Gulf. Predictability is low on the location of the rain and
thunderstorms each day due to the weak surface forcing; however,
overall coverage of showers and storms will mean that generally
over 60-70% of locations will see rain each day with the highest
coverage during the afternoons.

With the humid air mass in place, fog and/or low clouds can be
expected overnight each night in areas that see the heaviest
rainfall the previous day.

As we see several days of rainfall over the same locations,
there`s increasing chances for isolated flooding concerns as the
soils become saturated, and therefore we could see quicker rises
on area creeks and streams.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 720 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026

Current VFR conditions are expected to deteriorate between 4-8z
across Central Alabama as we remain in a wet onshore flow pattern
There is a low to moderate chance for SHRA/TSRA at MGM/AUO this
evening/tonight with a rain "break" for the rest. Cigs are
expected to lower further to IFR/LIFR after 8z and continue
through sunrise. Cigs will then slowly rise back to VFR by 17-
18z. More diurnally enhanced convection is expected across the
area TAF sites again on Wednesday after 15z as no changes in the
overall pattern are expected in the short term.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

The persistent wet pattern is expected to continue through the
remainder of the week in Central AL. This pattern will lead to
high rain chances each afternoon and the development of low
clouds or fog each morning. Therefore, there are no fire weather
concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     66  84  65  84 /  30  50  30  70
Anniston    67  84  67  84 /  40  50  20  80
Birmingham  68  84  68  85 /  20  50  20  80
Tuscaloosa  69  85  69  85 /  20  60  20  80
Calera      68  86  67  86 /  20  50  20  80
Auburn      68  83  68  85 /  60  60  20  70
Montgomery  68  84  68  85 /  30  60  20  80
Troy        68  84  67  86 /  40  70  20  80

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for the following
counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-
Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-Hale-
Jefferson-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Montgomery-Perry-Pike-
Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-Tallapoosa-
Tuscaloosa-Walker.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...25/Owen
AVIATION...08