931
FXUS64 KBMX 061710
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1210 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1209 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026

- Dry Work Week Ahead: Surface high pressure and weak ridging will
  maintain dry conditions and warm daytime highs in the mid to
  upper 80s through much of the work week.

- Gulf Disturbance Monitoring: The National Hurricane Center
  indicates an 90% chance of tropical development over the next 7
  days for a disturbance in the Southwestern Gulf, with a
  tropical depression expected to form by mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tuesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026

Water vapor imagery this evening reveals an upper trough swinging
across the eastern half of the country. At the surface, a cold
front can be analyzed draped across Central Alabama. Much drier
air is beginning to filter in to the north of this boundary with
PWATs already down to around 0.5" per the GOES TPW imagery.
Showers and thunderstorms can be seen ongoing to the south of the
boundary, closer to the Gulf coast. This front will linger across
the southeast for several days before washing out. Surface high
pressure and weak ridging aloft will keep dry conditions in place
through much of the work week. While days will still be warm with
highs in the mid to upper 80s, we will have a few cooler mornings
with lows dropping into the mid 50s for most.

All eyes turn to our southwest as we keep a close eye on a
disturbance over the southwestern Gulf. The NHC maintains a high
(80%) chance of development over the next 7 days as this cluster
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms drifts east-northeast
across the Gulf. A tropical depression is expected to form by the
middle of the week. At this time, it`s a bit too early to
highlight specific impacts across Central Alabama. However, we
can expect an increase in rain chances Friday through the
weekend. The latest rainfall amounts are likely to range from 2-
3". A couple members of the LREF are hinting at a 20-30% chance
of isolated amounts over 3".

95/Castillo

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period, as a wedge of dry
air moves in from the east. There is a very low (10-20%) chance
of low clouds at the southern terminals, but the more likely
scenario is that low clouds stay south of the terminals closer to
a stalled frontal boundary. Winds will be easterly this afternoon
and a little gusty at times, becoming lighter overnight, then
picking back up tomorrow morning.

32/JDavis

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Drier and cooler air returns Tuesday, persisting through late
week. Additional showers and thunderstorms are likely Friday into
the weekend as deep tropical moisture spreads across the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     51  85  52  88 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    54  85  54  88 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  57  86  57  89 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  59  91  59  93 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      58  86  57  89 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      60  82  58  84 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  60  86  57  87 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        60  84  57  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...95/Castillo
AVIATION...32/JDavis