063
FXUS64 KBMX 020515
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1115 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1114 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2026

- Mid Week Focus: Keep an eye on Tuesday evening into Wednesday as
  rain and thunderstorm chances ramp up. The severe weather threat
  is low, but heavy downpours could lead to some localized
  flooding.

- Cooldown Ahead: Get the jackets ready for the end of the week. A
  passing front will drop our temperatures, leaving us with lows
  in the 40s and maybe a few upper 30s for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Monday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1114 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2026

Only an isolated light shower may be noted across the far NRN
counties over the next few hours across Central Alabama. The
upper trough and associated shortwave activity is pushing EWD and
away from the area now extending from the Great Lakes to Georgia.
This wave will continue EWD and away from the region Monday
morning with a break in the rain activity for Monday into much of
the day Tuesday ahead of the next surface frontal system.

By Tuesday, our next system approaches as a low moves out of ERN
Kansas across to Illinois and Michigan by Thursday. As it does
so, it will drag a front across much of the Gulf Coast States
including Central Alabama. We could see a few more thunderstorms
with enough forcing from the front, along with some heavy rain at
times. Latest guidance looks to weaken storms as they get closer
Tuesday night with some of the flow potentially slow at times
with the lower stream system. This is pointing more toward heavy
rain potential for Tuesday night into Wednesday than severe, more
so in the NW half of Central Alabama. Behind it for Thursday,
there will be a small chance for some wrap-around showers behind
the front as the upper trough pushes across Eastern Conus. Then
on Friday a second (rain-free) front is expected to bring down a
much colder Canadian air mass to lower the temperatures back into
the 40s (and maybe a few upper 30s north) for lows for Central
Alabama for next weekend.

08

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1114 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2026

MVFR CIGs will continue to linger overnight, before slowly mixing
out around 02/09z. Here, dry air will surge back into the region
with an East wind, with conditions generally improving from east
to west. VFR conditions are expected area-wide by 02/18z, with
conditions remaining here for the remainder of this TAF period.

/44/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MinRHs remain well above critical thresholds over the coming
days. We will have a brief dry out for Monday and Tuesday. Rain
returns to the forecast Tuesday afternoon. Easterly winds will
gust near 20 MPH at times, generally during the afternoon hours,
through mid week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     52  77  57  79 /  20  10   0  10
Anniston    54  77  59  78 /  10  10   0  10
Birmingham  55  77  61  78 /  10  10   0  20
Tuscaloosa  57  79  63  80 /  10  10   0  20
Calera      57  77  62  77 /  10  10   0  20
Auburn      57  76  61  78 /  10  10   0  10
Montgomery  58  80  62  81 /  10   0   0  20
Troy        57  78  61  79 /  10   0   0  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION.../44/