785
FXUS64 KHUN 021005
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
405 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

...New NEAR TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 405 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

 - Medium to high chances (50-95%) for showers and a few
   thunderstorms will return during the middle part of this week
   as another front moves through the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 405 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Showers from a system that impacted much of the area Sunday have
moved NE of the region. The circulation rounding surface high
pressure off of the Mid Atlantic coast was producing a SE flow of
5-15 mph across the greater Tennessee Valley. Despite the very
heavy rain that some locations across the area received yesterday,
fog that frequently occurs after a rain event so far has been
mixed out by the wind and drier air filtering in. Some impressive
amounts of rain fell yesterday, that should put a damper on the
on-going drought much of the region is undergoing. The NW Alabama
Regional Airport at Muscle Shoals measured 3.77", exceeding the
old record of 2.93" last set in 1999. Other rainfall totals over
NW Alabama and adjacent TN/MS ranged from 3-5", and 2-3" along
the NW AL/TN border. Lesser amounts were recorded further to the
south and east.

Another system which impacted the Great Basin and Intermountain
West will moving to the NE across the central High Plains. High
altitude clouds associated with it was moving across this area
from the north. There was another deck of low/mid altitude clouds
across this region. Sufficient high cloud cover could retard
erosion of the clouds below, thus am expecting mostly cloudy
skies today. Highs into the low/mid 70s looks reasonable given the
SE flow and weak post system cold air advection. This next system
will bring more rain to the Valley in the mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 933 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

The main feature of interest within the short term period will be
an upper level low and subsequent trough swinging eastward through
the Plains on Tuesday, bringing a cold front towards the region.
As this front enters the mid-Mississippi Valley, models show it
slowing down with some shower/storm development ahead of it. This
activity should slowly work its way into northern AL and southern
middle TN Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. Current model
sounding profiles indicate the nocturnal arrival of this system
will keep available instability very low and lapse rates capped
around 5-6 C/km. Therefore, this continues to look like a primary
threat of heavy rainfall as PWATs reach around 1.5-1.7" (90th
percentile per BMX sounding climatology). While shear is parallel
to our boundary (favorable for flash flood potential), storm speed
and Corfidi upshear vectors are forecast to be 20-30 mph, which
should limit the flash flood threat due to faster moving storms
and decreased potential for training. Overall QPF for Tuesday
through Thursday has decreased with this forecast package,
bringing widespread 1-2" of rainfall with localized higher amounts
up to 4". With this morning`s rainfall in NW AL, we will be
primarily concerned about that region due to antecedent
conditions/saturated soils.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 933 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Extended range model guidance suggests that a weak low-level ridge
will build northeastward into the local forecast area on Wednesday
night and Thursday, in the wake of a departing surface trough and
axis of rain/thunderstorms. This (along with unamplified/westerly
flow aloft of 35-45 knots) will support dry conditions, with
overnight lows falling into the l-m 50s Thursday morning, followed by
afternoon highs in the l-m 70s. On Thursday night, large scale
ascent will strengthen considerably as a mid-level wave digs east-
southeastward into the TN Valley in the flow around an upper low
across the Great Lakes. Although the tropospheric column will be far
too dry to support any risk for precipitation, a minor increase in
cloud cover aloft should accompany the passage of this system. At the
surface, a reinforcing cold front will spread southeastward in
conjunction with the shortwave trough, with light northerly winds in
the low-levels (beneath NW flow aloft) expected to result in a
continuation of dry weather from Friday-Saturday night. Early morning
lows in the m30s-l40s can be expected on both Saturday/Sunday, with
afternoon highs in the l-m 60s. Low chances for rain may return to
parts of the region by Sunday afternoon, either as a result of a
weakening clipper system diving into the Mid-MS Valley or a lower-
latitude disturbance shifting eastward along the northwest Gulf
Coast. However, due to vastly different model solutions at this time
range, we will keep POPs in the 10-20% range.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

There have been no significant changes to previous aviation
forecast reasoning. VFR to MVFR conditions will continue, along
with LLWS (during the early morning hours) due to strong SE flow
at the 2000ft level. Sfc winds will remain from the ESE, with
gusts of 15-20 kts expected throughout the forecast period.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....70/DD
AVIATION...70/DD