691
FXUS62 KTAE 020938
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
438 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 305 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

- Hazardous boating conditions continue through at least Tuesday
  afternoon.

- Another round of rain is expected to arrive Wednesday and
  Thursday as a cold front approaches the region from the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 305 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

The Gulf low that produced rainfall along the FL Panhandle/Big Bend
yesterday, and continues to do so across the FL Peninsula today,
will look to depart to the northeast throughout this afternoon. As
it does so the vort max associated with the shortwave will split in
two, with half heading northeast following the main flow and the
other half slowly retrograding southwest back into the Gulf. This
retrograding vorticity looks to be close enough in proximity to
produce enough PVA to induce showers and possibly some isolated
storms across coastal FL Big Bend and Panhandle counties. Dew points
will be in the mid to upper 60s this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon
across our Florida counties as moisture advection pushes inland
from the Atlantic. Again, this lift and moisture combination
should be enough to produce some showers, primarily across
Florida, even under mid-level ridging.

By Wednesday the surface flow finally switches directions and clocks
around to being out of the south ahead of our next cold front.
Current model guidance is pointing to a decaying front on approach,
which could mean rain accumulations and severe potential being more
on the lower-end. We`ll have to see how the high-res guidance
evolves over the next day or so to see how impacts across the region
change. Otherwise, behind the cold front a switch to dry northwest
flow is expected late Thursday into Friday, persisting into the
weekend.

Generally expect daytime highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s through
Friday, dropping into the 70s this weekend. Expect overnight lows
generally in the mid to upper 60s through Friday before dipping into
the 50s Saturday and Sunday mornings post-frontal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 102 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

A mix of VFR/MVFR cigs are fcst overnight into the morning or
midday hrs. By the aftn, all terminals should be at VFR as low-
level clouds scatter out/lift. East to NE winds prevail around 10
kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 305 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

Easterly winds will be producing Advisory level conditions through
at least Tuesday afternoon, returning to more moderate breezes by
Wednesday. A wind shift to southerly and southwesterly is forecast
by midweek as another frontal system approaches, however significant
impacts are not expected at the moment.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 305 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

Transport winds will be moderate at around 15-20 mph from the east
today. Dispersions will be good during the afternoon hours each day
through the period. Winds will return to southerly by midweek ahead
of our next frontal system.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 305 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

Generally, up to an inch of rainfall is expected across the region
over the next week, isolated higher amounts possible along a cold
front Wednesday into Thursday. There are currently no flooding
concerns.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us .

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   82  66  84  67 /  20   0  20  10
Panama City   81  66  82  68 /   0   0  10  20
Dothan        80  63  82  65 /   0  10  10  10
Albany        80  63  83  65 /  10   0  10  10
Valdosta      82  65  84  66 /  10   0  20   0
Cross City    82  68  85  68 /  50  10  40  10
Apalachicola  78  68  79  70 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Tuesday for
     GMZ751-752-755-770-772-775.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM....Oliver
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...Oliver
FIRE WEATHER...Oliver
HYDROLOGY...Oliver