000
FXUS65 KREV 150940
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
240 AM PDT Mon Aug 15 2022

.SYNOPSIS...

Above average temperatures and mainly dry conditions kick off the
week with typical afternoon breezes. Tuesday we see another
monsoon moisture surge that increases chances for showers and
thunderstorms through Thursday, with potential for flash flooding,
new fire starts, and strong outflow winds. Next weekend ushers a
return to a mainly dry and seasonable pattern.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A rather quiet period marked by light winds and clear skies will
kick things off today. A shift in winds from westerly to
southeasterly this afternoon signals returning moist monsoonal
flow, bringing showers back to the area. Cumulus buildups are
likely along the White Mountains, and with GFS/ECMWF ensembles
showing PWAT values around 0.6 inches, showers and storms are
possible this afternoon. SREF and NBM guidance suggests some
isolated showers could also bubble up around far eastern
Mineral/Churchill County.

Our stretch of dry weather will begin to modify toward a more
moisture- rich regime by Tuesday, with model guidance suggesting a
possible morning onset to showers. We start to realize the higher
PWAT values coming closer to Reno and Tahoe, and sure enough the
models populate showers along the eastern Sierra for Tuesday
through Thursday. As each day evolves, the surge of moisture moves
further north and west, increasing chances for showers and storms
daily. As this mid-level moisture begins to overtake a dry
airmass, there is a possibility for hybrid storms Tuesday along
the periphery of the dry vs wet gradient. For Tuesday evening, a
jet streak feature appearing over the region could serve to
enhance shower activity with embedded thunder into the overnight
hours. Position and timing are critical to whether the feature
will interact with monsoonal moisture, and the outcome could
impact Wednesday`s showers. Should the showers hang on through
Tuesday night into Wednesday AM, it could limit or delay the onset
of convection for Wednesday. Either way, chances for showers
range 20-40% across the region, with the highest potential found
toward central and southern Nevada. Impacts from Tuesday storms
could include dry/wet hybrid storm behaviors such as dry lightning
strikes, gusty outflows, then as the moist air takes hold we
transition to heavy rainfall for Wednesday and Thursday. A
shortwave lifting through the region Thursday could bring
increased shear leading to more organized and possibly severe
storms.

An incoming upper level low makes an appearance for Friday,
shifting us back toward a more dry southwest flow for the weekend.
-HRICH


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions for Monday for northern terminals, while a push of
monsoonal moisture returns to southern terminals such as
KMMH/KBIH. Cumulus buildups along the White Mountains could
introduce showers and storms along the southern Sierra Front.

Moisture continues to stream in for Tuesday, increasing chances
for showers and storms for all terminals. This pattern persists
into Wednesday and Thursday. For the Tuesday-Thursday timeframe
impacts could include strong gusty outflow winds and possible
blowing dust, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall in the
vicinity of showers and storms. -HRICH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

The dry air for Monday will begin to be replaced by a moist
monsoonal airmass moving in from the eastern portion of Nevada.
Recent dry conditions may have dried fuels and made them more
receptive to fire starts. Starting Tuesday, potential for hybrid
storms to fire along the interaction between the dry and wet
airmasses exists, mostly north of US 50. This is the period of
highest danger for new fire starts due to lightning strikes.

As the moisture continues to surge north and west, PWAT values
will increase from around 0.6 inches on Tuesday to 0.8 to 1 inches
by Wednesday and Thursday, and modify storm behaviors to a more
wet scenario. The concern then becomes heavy rainfall over recent
burn scars, especially on steep terrain. -HRICH

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno