000
FXUS65 KREV 250846
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
146 AM PDT Thu Apr 25 2024


.SYNOPSIS...

Cooler weather along with periods of showers and thunderstorms will
persist through early Saturday. Potential thunderstorm risks include
gusty outflow winds, dangerous lightning, and localized heavy rain
and/or small hail. Please be aware of rapidly changing conditions
when outdoors. Drier weather and a slow warming trend are expected
to return Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Water vapor satellite imagery shows our next trough poised just off
the Pacific Northwest coast before it drops into the Sierra and
western Nevada late this afternoon. The trough will deepen across
the Great Basin through Friday into Saturday and bring our next
round of unsettled weather. Plan on periods of rain and high
elevation snow showers, enhanced afternoon breezes, and much
colder temperatures for late week into the weekend.

While the main jet is projected to dive south toward central and
southern CA, we will still see an uptick in the upper level winds
across the Sierra and into Western Nevada Thursday afternoon.
Surface level winds will be more breezy than typical with wind
gusts around 30-40 mph, while some wind prone areas may reach 45+
mph late afternoon and early this evening. West to southwest winds
today will shift to more northwesterly winds by Friday. The
northwest breezes with the cooler temperatures will have it
feeling quite brisk compared to our more mild days earlier this
week. We`re still forecasting widespread chances (50-90%) for
showers today into Friday along with a 15-25% chance for
thunderstorms and/or pellet showers. The rain totals for today
into early Saturday have remained steady for this active weather
period. We`re looking at about a 30-40% chance of 0.25" or more
for areas west of Highway 395, lesser (15-25% chances) for
western NV, and 25-35% chances for areas east of Highway 95. The
colder airmass arriving with the trough may produce some light
snow accumulations above 6500-7000 feet in the Sierra, so don`t be
shocked to see a bit of snow even at the Sierra passes through
early Saturday. Friday will be the coldest day of the week with
daytime highs about 15-20 degrees colder than the mild spring days
just a few days ago.

Ensemble cluster analysis signals for zonal flow across the Sierra
and western Nevada for early next week which would support a slow
warming and drying trend. The clusters then deviate from that
pattern as early as Wednesday with the majority of the ensembles
displaying another Eastern Pacific trough in the weather queue.
Drat. Blended guidance temperatures show this trend "nicely" with
a wide swath of values (10-15 degrees of spread) for the forecast
highs from Thursday onward into the weekend. Keep your fingers
crossed, but we may be looking at another cooldown and more active
weather for the first weekend in May too. Can we bribe spring to
give us a mild weather weekend or what?!

-Edan

&&

.AVIATION...

* VFR conditions are forecast for today for most TAF sites. Except
  for KTRK with fog development between 09-16Z resulting in IFR
  conditions.

* Ahead of the main trough, FL100 winds increase resulting in
  enhanced westerly surface winds (25-35 kts) on this afternoon.

* More widespread showers will push in after 21z as a larger
  trough drops through the Sierra and western Nevada through
  Saturday. Thunderstorm potential will be less than 15% as rain
  and high elevation snow showers arrive. Heaviest precipitation
  will push through overnight into Friday with chances dropping
  off by Saturday morning.

-Edan

&&


.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$