Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0954 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Valid 141630Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

Dry and stable conditions will prevail over most of the CONUS today,
with a few small exceptions.  A strong cold front sagging southward
across TX might result in isolated afternoon thunderstorms over
south TX.  Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms could affect
south FL this afternoon as the same front weakens and approaches the
area.  And finally, a few lightning strikes could occur inland
across western WA late tonight as a strong shortwave trough
approaches.  No severe storms are anticipated in any of these areas.

..Hart/Weinman.. 12/14/2025

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Valid 142000Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...20z Update...

The 10 percent thunder area was removed from South TX as the surface
front has surged south of the area into northeast Mexico. A minor
southward adjustment was also made across South Florida based on
latest surface observations and radar trends. Isolated weak
thunderstorms may persist the remainder of the afternoon from South
FL into the Keys.

..Leitman.. 12/14/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0954 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025/

Dry and stable conditions will prevail over most of the CONUS today,
with a few small exceptions.  A strong cold front sagging southward
across TX might result in isolated afternoon thunderstorms over
south TX.  Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms could affect
south FL this afternoon as the same front weakens and approaches the
area.  And finally, a few lightning strikes could occur inland
across western WA late tonight as a strong shortwave trough
approaches.  No severe storms are anticipated in any of these areas.

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few lightning flashes may occur in western Oregon and Washington
tomorrow (Monday).

...Synopsis...
A broad but low-amplitude upper ridge will become established east
of the Rockies while a de-amplifying upper trough overspreads the
northwestern U.S. tomorrow (Monday). Surface high pressure/colder
air will prevail east of the MS River, while dry, statically stable
air becomes predominant across the Plains into portions of the
Interior West. Thunderstorm potential will therefore be limited
across most of the U.S. One exception will be portions of the
Pacific Northwest, where colder temperatures aloft will accompany
the aforementioned de-amplifying upper trough. This will yield scant
buoyancy, amid appreciable forcing for ascent, to support a few
lightning flashes wherever deep-moist convection can develop.
Furthermore, 50+ kt flow, within a few hundred m above ground level,
will develop with the passage of the upper trough. If a stronger
storm core can materialize, enough downward momentum transport may
take place to support a few damaging gusts. However, confidence in
this scenario is too low for the introduction of severe
probabilities at this time.

..Squitieri.. 12/14/2025