Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few isolated thunderstorms are possible in the Texas Coastal Plain
Wednesday morning. Scattered thunderstorms are possible early
Thursday morning from the Ozarks to the Lower Ohio River Valley.

...Synopsis...
A strong mid-level jet streak and associated shortwave trough over
the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday morning will move quickly across
the Rockies and amplify as it enters the Plains late Wednesday into
early Thursday morning. A very strong surface low, associated with
this fast-moving trough, will move from British Columbia Wednesday
morning to the Upper Midwest by early Thursday morning. 

A few thunderstorms may persist early Wednesday within a region of
weak isentropic ascent across East Texas. However, as the low-level
jet veers/weakens, this threat is expected to wane. High pressure
will continue to dominate much of the daytime period across the
eastern CONUS which should limit any thunderstorm potential.
However, by Wednesday night, thunderstorm potential is expected to
increase from the Texas Coastal Plain to the Lower Ohio River
Valley. As the mid-level trough amplifies across the Plains, a
low-level jet will rapidly strengthen from East Texas to the Ozarks.
This will advect low-level moisture northward during the evening.
After 06Z, weak to potentially moderate elevated instability is
expected within a broad region of weak isentropic ascent from
Arkansas to southern Illinois. Effective shear (based on an elevated
parcel) is expected to remain very weak early Thursday morning as
the primary mid-level jet streak is not forecast to emerge over the
warm sector until later Thursday morning. Therefore, no severe
weather is anticipated on Day 3/Wednesday.

..Bentley.. 12/15/2025

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...D4/Thursday - Mid-Mississippi Valley and Lower Ohio Valley to the
Southeast...
Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday as moisture expands
northward ahead of a strong cold front. Forecast soundings show
strong shear across the region, but limited instability as 60+ F
dewpoints struggle to make it north of I-20. Given the strength of
the low-level jet, some damaging wind gusts are possible, but a
greater threat is not anticipated due to the aforementioned limited
instability. 

...D5/Friday - Carolinas to Georgia Coast...
Thunderstorms may be ongoing near the Carolina/Georgia coast on
Friday morning, but will quickly move into the Atlantic as a cold
front advances eastward. In addition, this front will move into the
Gulf and push rich moisture well offshore. As a result, thunderstorm
potential should be limited for the remainder of the D5 period. 

...D6/Sat-D7/Sun - TN Valley into the Southeast...
Return flow will resume once again across the western Gulf over the
weekend. 60F dewpoints are expected to advect inland across East
Texas and Louisiana. This richer moisture may eventually interact
with a southeastward moving cold front at the end of D6 and into D7
with some thunderstorm potential. A few stronger storms may be
possible if sufficient instability can develop.