Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0652 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...Discussion...
A prominent upper trough will continue to spread southeastward from
the Midwest/Great Lakes toward the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast coast by
tonight. Surface high pressure and related cold/dry continental
trajectories will be increasingly prevalent east of the Rockies.
Near a south/southeastward-advancing cold front, isolated
thunderstorms will remain possible early today over the northwest
Gulf, while a few flashes of lighting are also possible with weak
convection across the southern Florida Peninsula, before flow veers
and stronger convergence shifts offshore. Lastly, a few lightning
flashes could also occur late tonight near coastal Washington within
the warm/moist conveyor preceding an approaching shortwave trough
and cold front.

..Guyer/Lyons.. 12/14/2025

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0954 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Valid 141630Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

Dry and stable conditions will prevail over most of the CONUS today,
with a few small exceptions.  A strong cold front sagging southward
across TX might result in isolated afternoon thunderstorms over
south TX.  Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms could affect
south FL this afternoon as the same front weakens and approaches the
area.  And finally, a few lightning strikes could occur inland
across western WA late tonight as a strong shortwave trough
approaches.  No severe storms are anticipated in any of these areas.

..Hart/Weinman.. 12/14/2025

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few lightning flashes may occur in western Oregon and Washington
tomorrow (Monday).

...Synopsis...
A broad but low-amplitude upper ridge will become established east
of the Rockies while a de-amplifying upper trough overspreads the
northwestern U.S. tomorrow (Monday). Surface high pressure/colder
air will prevail east of the MS River, while dry, statically stable
air becomes predominant across the Plains into portions of the
Interior West. Thunderstorm potential will therefore be limited
across most of the U.S. One exception will be portions of the
Pacific Northwest, where colder temperatures aloft will accompany
the aforementioned de-amplifying upper trough. This will yield scant
buoyancy, amid appreciable forcing for ascent, to support a few
lightning flashes wherever deep-moist convection can develop.
Furthermore, 50+ kt flow, within a few hundred m above ground level,
will develop with the passage of the upper trough. If a stronger
storm core can materialize, enough downward momentum transport may
take place to support a few damaging gusts. However, confidence in
this scenario is too low for the introduction of severe
probabilities at this time.

..Squitieri.. 12/14/2025