Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0954 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Valid 141630Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

Dry and stable conditions will prevail over most of the CONUS today,
with a few small exceptions.  A strong cold front sagging southward
across TX might result in isolated afternoon thunderstorms over
south TX.  Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms could affect
south FL this afternoon as the same front weakens and approaches the
area.  And finally, a few lightning strikes could occur inland
across western WA late tonight as a strong shortwave trough
approaches.  No severe storms are anticipated in any of these areas.

..Hart/Weinman.. 12/14/2025

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few lightning flashes may occur in western Oregon and Washington
tomorrow (Monday).

...Synopsis...
A broad but low-amplitude upper ridge will become established east
of the Rockies while a de-amplifying upper trough overspreads the
northwestern U.S. tomorrow (Monday). Surface high pressure/colder
air will prevail east of the MS River, while dry, statically stable
air becomes predominant across the Plains into portions of the
Interior West. Thunderstorm potential will therefore be limited
across most of the U.S. One exception will be portions of the
Pacific Northwest, where colder temperatures aloft will accompany
the aforementioned de-amplifying upper trough. This will yield scant
buoyancy, amid appreciable forcing for ascent, to support a few
lightning flashes wherever deep-moist convection can develop.
Furthermore, 50+ kt flow, within a few hundred m above ground level,
will develop with the passage of the upper trough. If a stronger
storm core can materialize, enough downward momentum transport may
take place to support a few damaging gusts. However, confidence in
this scenario is too low for the introduction of severe
probabilities at this time.

..Squitieri.. 12/14/2025

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1008 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Valid 141700Z - 151200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

Fire weather concerns remain limited for today across the country.
Dry and breezy conditions are beginning to emerge across portions of
the Southeast in the wake of an early-morning frontal passage, but
recent rainfall over the past 24 hours should mitigate fuel status
for most locations. Localized elevated conditions may emerge within
the immediate eastern slopes of the Laramie Mountains in southeast
WY, but modest fuel status and weak winds away from the terrain
limit the overall fire weather potential. See the previous
discussion for additional details.

..Moore.. 12/14/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025/

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will move through the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast
today and eventually move off the East Coast by Monday morning. Cold
air will continue to filter into the Southeast. Some dry and breezy
conditions are possible in southeastern Wyoming. Additionally gusty
northerly winds with modest RH reductions are expected in the
Southeast behind the cold front. Given the cool/cold temperatures
and poor fuel receptiveness across much of the CONUS, fire weather
concerns will remain low.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...