Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Valid 142000Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...20z Update...

The 10 percent thunder area was removed from South TX as the surface
front has surged south of the area into northeast Mexico. A minor
southward adjustment was also made across South Florida based on
latest surface observations and radar trends. Isolated weak
thunderstorms may persist the remainder of the afternoon from South
FL into the Keys.

..Leitman.. 12/14/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0954 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025/

Dry and stable conditions will prevail over most of the CONUS today,
with a few small exceptions.  A strong cold front sagging southward
across TX might result in isolated afternoon thunderstorms over
south TX.  Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms could affect
south FL this afternoon as the same front weakens and approaches the
area.  And finally, a few lightning strikes could occur inland
across western WA late tonight as a strong shortwave trough
approaches.  No severe storms are anticipated in any of these areas.

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Valid 161200Z - 221200Z

Confidence in the potential for critical fire weather conditions
remains limited for the country through the extended period.
Long-range guidance and cluster analyses continue to trend towards a
more active upper-level flow regime heading into the upcoming work
week. This pattern shift will favor surface cyclone development
across Plains/Midwest with most guidance showing a reasonably strong
signal for intense cyclone development across the northern
Plains/Great Lakes during the D4/Wed to D5/Thur period. A similar
signal for cyclone development is noted heading into the upcoming
weekend (albeit with considerably higher model/ensemble
variability). In general, this synoptic regime will promote
rain/snow chances from the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies
into the Midwest and southeastern states with predominantly dry and
warm conditions expected for the Southwest and southern Plains. 

...D5/Thursday - D7/Saturday - Central/Southern High Plains...
A return to warm and dry conditions is anticipated for the work week
with temperatures expected to climb into the mid/upper 60s for
portions of the southern High Plains by mid-week. These temperatures
will reside near the 90th percentile of seasonal normal for the
region, and will promote steady dead/dormant fuel drying through
late week. The development of a series of strong surface lows and
cold frontal passages beginning D4/Wed and lasting through the
weekend may support strong enough winds for periods of elevated to
critical fire weather conditions across portions of the central and
southern High Plains each afternoon. While most deterministic and
ensemble solutions generally agree in the overall pattern,
considerable variability persist among guidance. This limits
confidence in which day/regions will see the greatest fire weather
threat, though risk probabilities may eventually be needed as model
consensus improves in the coming days.

..Moore.. 12/14/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...