Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Valid 152000Z - 161200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See
previous discussion below for more information.

..Thornton.. 12/15/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025/

...Synopsis...

Thunderstorm potential will remain low today as strong surface high
pressure and cut-off Gulf moisture results in a dry/stable airmass
across much of the CONUS. A weak shortwave impulse will move over
portions of the Pacific Northwest today/tonight. A few lightning
flashes will be possible offshore, but minimal instability and
generally shallow convection will preclude stronger updrafts through
sufficiently cold temperatures aloft to produce thunderstorms
inland.

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few isolated thunderstorms are possible in the Texas Coastal Plain
Wednesday morning. Scattered thunderstorms are possible early
Thursday morning from the Ozarks to the Lower Ohio River Valley.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the north-central
CONUS on Wednesday, prompting the rapid eastward progression of a
990 mb surface low along the U.S./Canada border. A trailing cold
front will extend from the surface low to the Rockies, preceded by
surface troughing and associated southerly moisture return from the
western Gulf. Low-level warm-air advection should take place across
eastern TX to the Ozarks through the day Wednesday, promoting
marginal buoyancy amid some synoptic ascent attributed to surface
troughing. By early Thursday morning, enough buoyancy should be in
place for the development of isolated thunderstorms across the
Sabine River Valley into the Ozarks.

..Squitieri.. 12/15/2025

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0103 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

The previous forecast remains on track with limited potential for
widespread fire weather concerns expected across the country for
Tuesday. Latest guidance continues to depict dry conditions across
the Southeast, but weak winds are expected under a surface high.
Localized elevated fire weather conditions may develop within the
immediate lee of the CO Front Range and the Sacramento Mountains in
NM; however, modest synoptic winds will limit the coverage of
elevated meteorological conditions over a region with marginally dry
fuels.

..Moore.. 12/15/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025/

...Synopsis...
Some modest breakdown of the upper ridge across the CONUS can be
expected on Tuesday. A weak front will move out of the High Plains.
There will be some increase in mid-level winds across the Rockies as
well. Where sufficient downslope warming occurs within the
central/southern High Plains, fire weather could approach elevated
criteria locally. Confidence in location/duration are too limited
for highlights.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...