Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0652 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...Discussion...
A prominent upper trough will continue to spread southeastward from
the Midwest/Great Lakes toward the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast coast by
tonight. Surface high pressure and related cold/dry continental
trajectories will be increasingly prevalent east of the Rockies.
Near a south/southeastward-advancing cold front, isolated
thunderstorms will remain possible early today over the northwest
Gulf, while a few flashes of lighting are also possible with weak
convection across the southern Florida Peninsula, before flow veers
and stronger convergence shifts offshore. Lastly, a few lightning
flashes could also occur late tonight near coastal Washington within
the warm/moist conveyor preceding an approaching shortwave trough
and cold front.

..Guyer/Lyons.. 12/14/2025

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Northward moisture return is expected to persist through the period
on D4/Wednesday as a strong surface low moves across the northern
Plains and Upper Midwest and strong southerly flow expands across
much of the warm sector. Despite the moisture advancing well inland,
warm air aloft should limit strong thunderstorm potential on
D4/Wednesday. 

By D5/Thursday, weak to moderate instability is expected from East
Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Strong shear will be present
north of I-20 as a mid-level trough amplifies and a strong mid-level
jet overspreads the warm sector. Despite the presence of strong
shear and weak to moderate instability, updraft intensity may still
struggle due to weak lapse rates/warm air aloft. Only weak height
falls/cooling temperatures aloft are forecast south of the MO
Bootheel. Thunderstorms are likely from the Mid-Mississippi Valley
northward, where forcing will be stronger, but these regions will
remain well north of the more favorable instability. Therefore, any
severe weather threat would likely be marginal.

The cold front, associated with the storm system on D5/Thursday,
will move off the East Coast early on D6/Friday. Some marginal
severe weather may be possible Friday morning, but otherwise, severe
weather potential will be low as high pressure builds east of the MS
River in its wake. 

By this weekend, return flow is anticipated across portions of the
southern Plains, but destabilization remains uncertain. A zonal
mid-level pattern with multiple embedded shortwave troughs is
currently forecast during that timeframe which commonly results in
considerably low predictability. Regardless of the exact outcome
over the weekend, there is general consensus for zonal flow and a
ridge building across the western CONUS and into the Plains. In
general, this will likely not support a significant severe weather
threat.