Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Wednesday through Wednesday night.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that an increasingly prominent high may build once
again across and north of the Aleutians vicinity, but it appears
that there will be little change to the downstream flow across the
mid-latitude eastern Pacific into western North America, through at
least this period.  Downstream, there is substantive spread in the
model output concerning the subsequent evolution of short wave
troughing initially digging across the Midwest at the outset of the
period, and another notable perturbation digging toward the Great
Lakes region, after emerging from the southern Hudson Bay vicinity. 
Regardless, larger-scale mid/upper troughing to the east of the
Rockies will be reinforced, and related surface developments are not
likely to promote a southerly return flow off the Gulf Basin, where
boundary-layer modification in the wake of the prior front will only
be gradually underway.

..Kerr.. 12/08/2025

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0325 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Downstream of a prominent blocking high, which may be maintained
near/north of the Aleutians vicinity through this period, latest
medium-range output suggests that flow across the mid-latitude
Pacific through North America may trend less amplified by next
weekend into early next week.  Relatedly, guidance is becoming more
unclear how impactful cold air, initially building to the lee of the
Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies by late this week, will be in terms
of drying across the northern Gulf Basin, as it noses
south/southeastward in one or two surges through the remainder of
the period.  

It now appears at least a bit more of a possibility that a weak to
modest elevated, if not boundary-layer based, Gulf moisture return
could occur on a developing southerly return flow, across parts of
the northwestern Gulf coast into southern Great Plains next weekend
into early next week.  This could promote destabilization supportive
of a risk for thunderstorm development.  However, with surface
cyclogenesis appearing unlikely to the lee of the southern Rockies,
the potential for severe weather appears low in the presence of
limited large-scale forcing for ascent and vertical shear.