Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few storms are possible across South Florida and the Florida Keys,
as well as the western Gulf Coast today.

...Discussion...

Strong upper trough over the Great Lakes/Midwest region will advance
off the Middle Atlantic Coast by 15/06z as the primary midlevel
speed max translate well downstream. Dominant surface anticyclone
will settle into the mid MS/OH Valley region by late afternoon which
will effectively drive the cold front deep into Mexico and across
the southern FL Peninsula. Early in the period, isolated
thunderstorms may be noted along the trailing cold front across the
northwestern Gulf Coast region. Some risk for a few flashes of
lighting are also possible with weak convection across the southern
FL Peninsula before flow veers and stronger convergence shifts
offshore.

..Darrow/Wendt.. 12/14/2025

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible in western Oregon and Washington on
Monday.

...Discussion...
A strong area of high pressure will dominate the eastern CONUS on
Monday with rich low-level moisture pushed well south into the Gulf.
Therefore, no thunderstorms are expected for most of the CONUS on
Monday. The only exception will be western Oregon/Washington. A
strong surface low will move into British Columbia, with some modest
northward moisture push ahead of a cold front. This low-level
moisture advection, combined with cooling temperatures aloft with
the associated mid-level trough, should result in weak instability
on Monday. A few lightning flashes will be possible.

..Bentley.. 12/14/2025

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible in the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday
and Tuesday night.

...Discussion...
As high pressure moves from the Southeast into the Atlantic, and
weak lee troughing develops across the High Plains, southerly return
flow returns across the Plains on Tuesday. Some showers may develop
within weak isentropic ascent across east Texas on Tuesday night,
but most guidance shows minimal instability until after 12Z
Wednesday. Therefore, thunderstorm activity is not expected.

Thunderstorms are possible in western Washington and far northwest
Oregon on Tuesday and Tuesday night as a strong mid-level trough
approaches the coast. Weak instability is expected during the
afternoon, but most forecast soundings suggest the equilibrium level
will be too low for charge separation which may keep any lightning
potential isolated. However, by late Tuesday night/early Wednesday,
as cold air aloft overspreads the region, sufficiently deep
instability is expected for lightning across western Washington and
perhaps into northwest Oregon. During this time, more frequent
lightning may be possible with a line of convection along the
surface front.

..Bentley.. 12/14/2025