Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025

Valid 080100Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
A brief tornado and locally strong gusts remain possible, mainly
through late evening across the south-central portion of the Florida
Peninsula.

...South-central FL...
A convectively reinforced front has been sagging south across
central FL over the past couple hours. The bulk of convection has
weakened as it spread across the peninsula, with deeper/renewed
updrafts holding off the Gulf Coast, southwest of Tampa Bay to west
of Fort Myers. 23Z XMR and 00Z TBW soundings sampled less-than-moist
adiabatic lapse rates through much of the troposphere, which will
remain a limiting factor to intensification of convection over land.
But strong deep-layer shear (effective bulk values in excess of 50
kts) and moderate low-level hodograph enhancement will maintain a
low-probability tornado and strong wind gust threat through late
evening. This may be focused near the juncture of the eastern Gulf
convection with the undercutting boundary. With only minor
large-scale ascent, offshore convection should wane overnight and
severe potential across the peninsula should diminish. See MCD 2253
for additional short-term discussion.

..Grams.. 12/08/2025

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe-storm potential appears negligible today through tonight.

...South FL...
With a broad upper trough remaining anchored across the East, an
embedded shortwave impulse will progress across the southern
Appalachians to coastal VA/NC by evening. A surface cold front will
sag south across the remainder of the FL Peninsula. In the wake of
decaying morning convection, adequate boundary-layer heating will be
necessary for redevelopment of midday to afternoon storms along the
front. Large-scale ascent, outside of low-level convergence
attendant to the front, appears nebulous with the region
well-removed from influence of the VA/NC impulse. This combined with
persistently weak mid-level lapse rates should limit convective
vigor. But a locally strong gust or two might occur until the front
progresses into the FL Straits.

..Grams/Thornton.. 12/08/2025

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S Tuesday
through Tuesday night.

...Discussion...
While a blocking high to the north of the Aleutians may undergo at
least some short-lived suppression, models indicate that a
downstream high may become a bit more prominent across the southern
mid- to subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific during this
period.  As this occurs, a belt of strong anticyclonic flow is
likely to be maintained across much of the eastern mid-latitude
Pacific through the northern U.S. intermountain region and Rockies. 

One of a number of short wave perturbations progressing through this
jet is forecast to emerge and contribute to amplifying mid-level
troughing as it digs across the northern Great Plains through Upper
Midwest, accompanied by a rapidly migrating surface cyclone into the
upper Great Lakes by late Tuesday night.  It appears that this will
be trailed by a gradually consolidating and increasingly significant
surface cold intrusion.

A notable preceding surface front may remain a focus for
thunderstorm development near and south-southeast of the Florida
Straits Tuesday into Tuesday night.  The trailing flank of this
front is forecast to weaken across the southwestern Gulf Basin, and
some Gulf boundary-layer modification may commence to the north. 
However, this is likely to remain rather modest, and an initial
low-level offshore flow across the Gulf Coast, veering to an
increasing westerly component by Tuesday night, will tend to inhibit
inland moistening.

..Kerr.. 12/08/2025