Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025

Valid 082000Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...20z Update...
The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required.
Recent updrafts developing across far south FL have been slow to
intensify within the modestly buoyant but weakly forced environment.
This trend is expected to continue through this evening as the front
continues to push offshore.

..Moore.. 12/08/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A progressive upper pattern will persist today with a pair of
shortwave troughs, one currently moving towards the central
Appalachians and the other moving towards the Four Corners and
central Rockies, continuing eastward/southeastward as another pair
of shortwave troughs drop into the northern Plains and Upper
Midwest. At the surface, high pressure will continue to shift
eastward/southeastward over more of the eastern CONUS while a low,
currently in the western Atlantic off the SC coast, progresses
northeastward. 

A cold front extends southwestward from the western Atlantic surface
low through central FL, which is the only area across the entire
CONUS with any notable low-level moisture. Dewpoints over south FL
preceding this front are currently in the low 70s, and mesoanalysis
indicates modest buoyancy over the region. Convergence along the
front will be modest and much of the large-scale ascent will be
displaced north and east of this region, but isolated showers and
thunderstorms are still expected this afternoon and evening.
Moderate deep-layer vertical shear is in place, and there is a
very-low-probability risk for a damaging gust or two. However,  
limited updraft depth and/or persistence should mitigate the overall
severe potential.

Day 2 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1103 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears negligible on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
In the wake of a cold frontal passage, a surface ridge across the
Southeast will suppress any Gulf moisture return on Tuesday,
resulting in generally dry/stable conditions and negligible inland
thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. Some thunderstorm activity
is possible over the Florida Straits, but current guidance suggests
that this will largely remain offshore of the FL Peninsula and south
of the FL Keys. 

To the north, a strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move
quickly southeastward from the Canadian Prairies and northern High
Plains towards the Upper Midwest. A strong (near/below 990 mb)
surface cyclone will accompany this system, as an attendant cold
front moves through parts of the northern Plains and eventually the
Upper Great Lakes region. Very weak/shallow convection may develop
within an intensifying wind field across the northern Great Plains
during the day/evening, and across parts of the Midwest Tuesday
night, but any organized convective contribution to wind gust
potential currently appears unlikely.

..Dean.. 12/08/2025

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible Wednesday through
Wednesday night.

...Synopsis...
A large-scale upper trough is forecast to amplify over the eastern
CONUS on Wednesday, as an embedded shortwave trough moves from the
Midwest/Great Lakes towards the Mid Atlantic/New England. A deep
surface cyclone will move from the eastern Great Lakes toward
northern New England, as a cold front sweeps through the Ohio Valley
and Northeast. 

Gulf moisture will remain suppressed through the period, resulting
in dry/stable conditions and negligible inland thunderstorm
potential across the CONUS. Some weak buoyancy may develop over far
south FL and the Keys, though potential for deep convection will be
limited by weak ascent and dry air aloft. Gusty showers will be
possible from parts of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast, in
association with the surface cyclone and cold front, but buoyancy is
forecast to remain negligible across these regions.

..Dean.. 12/08/2025