Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Sporadic severe wind gusts may accompany isolated thunderstorms
across parts of the Pacific Northwest tonight.

...Pacific Northwest...
A vigorous lead shortwave trough will steadily amplify today and
reach the coastal Pacific Northwest tonight. This will be
accompanied by a strong deep-layer wind field, highlighted by 90+ kt
winds at 500 mb and 50-80 kt winds within the lowest 1-3 km AGL.
This will be as Pacific moisture also steadily increases tonight in
tandem with the inland-advancing cold front. Low-topped convection
is expected to accompany the front, initially approaching the
Washington coast by late evening, and then more interior areas
overnight/early Wednesday. Surface-based buoyancy will remain
meager, but very strong gradient winds will shift from the southwest
to west-northwest as the front passes. Sporadic lightning flashes
and strong to severe-caliber wind gusts may accompany the passage of
this low-topped convective line, with the most intense low-level
winds/convective influences expected to peak during the overnight
and early morning hours of Wednesday.

..Guyer/Lyons.. 12/16/2025

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A line of storms will likely be ongoing from portions of the
Northeast into the mid-Atlantic and Carolinas Friday morning. If
sufficient destabilization can occur, a few isolated damaging wind
gusts will be possible before the front moves offshore. In the wake
of this cold front, an extended period of low severe potential
begins. By Saturday afternoon, moisture is forecast to advect inland
across East Texas and Louisiana, but no thunderstorm activity is
expected. 60s dewpoints will remain along the Gulf Coast from Texas
to inland Louisiana and Mississippi through the weekend and into
early next week. However, building heights aloft will limit
thunderstorm potential for much of the extended. Even if some
thunderstorms occur early next week, as indicated by the 00Z ECMWF
across MS/TN, they will likely remain south of the stronger
mid-level flow and without strong destabilization, will be unlikely
to be severe.