Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Sporadic severe wind gusts may accompany isolated thunderstorms
across parts of the Pacific Northwest tonight.

...Pacific Northwest...
A vigorous lead shortwave trough will steadily amplify today and
reach the coastal Pacific Northwest tonight. This will be
accompanied by a strong deep-layer wind field, highlighted by 90+ kt
winds at 500 mb and 50-80 kt winds within the lowest 1-3 km AGL.
This will be as Pacific moisture also steadily increases tonight in
tandem with the inland-advancing cold front. Low-topped convection
is expected to accompany the front, initially approaching the
Washington coast by late evening, and then more interior areas
overnight/early Wednesday. Surface-based buoyancy will remain
meager, but very strong gradient winds will shift from the southwest
to west-northwest as the front passes. Sporadic lightning flashes
and strong to severe-caliber wind gusts may accompany the passage of
this low-topped convective line, with the most intense low-level
winds/convective influences expected to peak during the overnight
and early morning hours of Wednesday.

..Guyer/Lyons.. 12/16/2025