Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Valid 142000Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...20z Update...

The 10 percent thunder area was removed from South TX as the surface
front has surged south of the area into northeast Mexico. A minor
southward adjustment was also made across South Florida based on
latest surface observations and radar trends. Isolated weak
thunderstorms may persist the remainder of the afternoon from South
FL into the Keys.

..Leitman.. 12/14/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0954 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025/

Dry and stable conditions will prevail over most of the CONUS today,
with a few small exceptions.  A strong cold front sagging southward
across TX might result in isolated afternoon thunderstorms over
south TX.  Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms could affect
south FL this afternoon as the same front weakens and approaches the
area.  And finally, a few lightning strikes could occur inland
across western WA late tonight as a strong shortwave trough
approaches.  No severe storms are anticipated in any of these areas.

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few lightning flashes may occur over parts of the Pacific
Northwest on Tuesday/Tuesday evening, with isolated thunderstorms
also possible over the Texas Coast Plain early Wednesday morning.

...Synopsis...
A series of mid-level troughs will progress across the northern
CONUS on Tuesday, resulting in pronounced surface troughs becoming
established across the Pacific Northwest and the central CONUS.
Cooler temperatures aloft will overspread the northern OR and WA
coastline, resulting in scant buoyancy amid deep-layer ascent to
support a few lightning flashes during the day Tuesday. A warm-air
advection regime should develop along the western Gulf Coast in
response to the glancing mid-level trough to the north, resulting in
the onset of moisture return. Elevated buoyancy should develop
within the warm-air advection regime after 06Z Wednesday morning,
which may support isolated thunderstorm development across the TX
Coastal Plain.

..Squitieri.. 12/14/2025

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required.
Localized fire weather concerns remain possible within in the
immediate lee of the Laramie Mountains in southeast WY as well as
the northern Front Range in northern CO; however, latest guidance
continues to suggest that the overall potential will remain
sufficiently localized and transient to preclude highlights.

..Moore.. 12/14/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025/

...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will continue shift eastward into more of the central
CONUS on Monday. Surface high pressure will remain in the Southeast.
Breezy return flow will occur across parts of the southern Plains,
but cooler temperatures should continue to limit RH reductions.
Locally dry and breezy conditions are again possible in southeast
Wyoming. Fuels in parts of these regions may support brief, locally
elevated conditions, but greater fire weather concerns are not
expected.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...